GOP 2012 ELECTION AUTOPSY REDUX


blochadvocate_7

Both your comment and the comments above from Amazona make David Brooks point for him. It is a combination of retrograde thinking [living in the past], plus an aging base [sorry like it or not there are more 50 and 60 somethings aligned with the GOP than 20 somethings], coupled with a sense that government has abandoned a silent bargain with those who felt values and belonging to a group who had always held power were more favorable than promoting a sense of cultural and economic diversity, that is tearing the GOP apart. Mr. Brooks tells the damning tale clearly:

“Can current Republicans change their underlying mentality to adapt to these realities? Intellectual history says no. People almost never change their underlying narratives or unconscious frameworks. Moreover, in the South and rural West, where most Republicans are from, the Encroachment Story has deep historic and psychological roots. Anti-Washington, anti-urban sentiment has characterized those cultures for decades.

It’s probably futile to try to change current Republicans. It’s smarter to build a new wing of the Republican Party, one that can compete in the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, in the upper Midwest and along the West Coast. It’s smarter to build a new division that is different the way the Westin is different than the Sheraton.

The second G.O.P. wouldn’t be based on the Encroachment Story. It would be based on the idea that America is being hit simultaneously by two crises, which you might call the Mancur Olson crisis and the Charles Murray crisis.

Olson argued that nations decline because their aging institutions get bloated and sclerotic and retard national dynamism. Murray argues that America is coming apart, dividing into two nations — one with high education levels, stable families and good opportunities and the other with low education levels, unstable families and bad opportunities.

The second G.O.P. would tackle both problems at once. It would be filled with people who recoiled at President Obama’s second Inaugural Address because of its excessive faith in centralized power, but who don’t share the absolute antigovernment story of the current G.O.P.”

That’s the important bit. The Right will not change. They will not offer any form of plan that uses government power to help the 47% because that action would run counter to the wishes of their base. They will not take action on the absolute dire necessity to level the economic playing field in America by way of taxation, wealth redistribution and the nationalisation of some industry because they would lose all their corporate election campaign support. The GOP, in its current incarnation cannot reach out to blacks and Latinos in any meaningful way because their party is at its roots a party of white men, for white men with values forged in the 1930s, 40s and 50s, the times prior to and after the so called “Greatest Generation.” It is this nostalgia for the social weather of that time that cripples the GOP in the age of the Internet, the 24 hour news cycle and the GLBTQ rights struggle. There is no chance that any of the real social issues of the modern era will be decided in favor of conservatism. There may be setbacks on marriage equality for homosexuals but within a generation the majority of states, outside the South, will have passed legislation or voted marriage equality into law. Over the next five to ten years you will see attempts being made to reverse a woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy within federal guidelines, but like the conservative fight against marriage equality these will be Pyrrhic victories—at best.

In the end Brooks is absolutely correct. There will be a fracture in the GOP coming after a sound defeat in the 2016 presidential election and what I seen as a shocking loss of the House the same year. James Carville wrote after the election of President Barack Obama that his victory should not be taken as a direct sign of the fall of conservatism but as the shove that leads to the fall of the GOP as a national party. I still believe he’s right because there is very little that the grassroots conservatives like many of you here at Blogs4Victory can do to energize young people, women and minorities to vote for your policies because you have none that support their American dreams. For the remainder of this century conservatives will have governorships and legislatures in mostly rural states in the South and the West and as the ball drops on December 31, 2099 I would be willing to wager that Texas, Missouri, Iowa and Kansas will not be among these last bastions but South Dakota, Wyoming and Idaho will.

Carville made another point after the 2012 election while America waited for a stunned Mitt Romney to concede. Chris Matthews asked Carville what the Democrats needed to do to finally wrestle control of all three branches from the GOP for the long term. Carville’s response, “Wait.”

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Sarah Bloch, D.S.V.J., J.F., O.Q.H [Jur.]
Amici Bax Demvolu Comnu
Politics & Culture Wars Managing Editor
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
45 Colnu 2 AS

One Response to “GOP 2012 ELECTION AUTOPSY REDUX”

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