ECHOES FROM THE PAST: CARL PRYOR NAILS THE US ECONOMY TURNING THE CORNER
On 26 September 2012 I wrote the following:
The US economy is not really winning any gold medals right now. I’m a firm believer in the policies of Barack Obama will bring the economy out of its sluggishness sometime in Q2 2014 as our in house economic expert Carl Pryor has been saying for nearly three years. Actually, Pryor has pushed his full recovery date [Pryor measures this with the rate of unemployment being below 6%] back from Q3 2015 a few months ago when Romney became the de facto GOP nominee noting, “There’s no way this man will win and this being the case the Affordable care Act is in no jeopardy.” This makes me wonder though. If I were running as the challenger to a man that’s presiding over a nation that is since 1946 been used to having a wasteful abundance but finds itself in a employment challenge recovery I would be hammering the incumbent on his failure to create jobs.
On that day the unemployment rate in the United States stood at 7.8%. Carlton Pryor from 15 September 2008, the day America realized that the Recession was not just some economic boogeyman, said continuously that it would take the nation a full six years to recover below 6% unemployment. This has come fully true. Pryor last night at dinner offered his insight into where the United States economy would be going in the coming years. His chief concern was the potential drag that low oil prices could cause to global economy. He told me this would become concerning only if oil remains below $US 70 per barrel into the summer of 2016. So there’s time on that issue.
As far as America goes Pryor sees unemployment below 5% by Q3 2016 and wages rising through the spring and summer of 2015. Like any good Keynesian he warns about inflationary spikes into the winter months of 2016 through the summer of 2017 for American consumers. “Real weekly earnings are the metric to keep an eye on over the first two quarters of 2015. The number I would like to see would be real wages crossing $US367.00 per week with that increase coming in more hours worked plus and increase in the real hourly wage. All of this would tie in neatly to a bumper Holiday Shopping season I see coming in 2015. Conservatives, however, will continue to talk about the shrinking labour pool until President Obama is out of office, but that is by no means a real economic concern–it is a politically motivated concern with no real economic fundamental. Retirements and disability claims are near to the peak of roughly 45,000 per month and by Q3 2016 the tipping point where more people will cease to just take any job to have a paycheck and are being sought out for their skills, no matter their age, will push unemployment down dramatically in September and October 2016. To be honest this will have a political wind behind it as well if Hillary Rodham Clinton is the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016. Without Hillary, the American economy could still push beyond 5% growth but the only GOP candidate that can provide that sort of optimism that we here at TED-OG can see is curiously New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. With a Clinton win unemployment in February 2017 will stand at 4.7%; with any GOP winner other than Christie, 5.2%. The outliers in all of this are Warren and Palin. Warren winning puts the unemployment rate at 5.0% and Palin winning puts the unemployment rate at 6.7%.”
Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
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