THE VOTE FOR US HOUSE SPEAKER: THE 2015 CALM BEFORE THE 2016 STORM
My colleague Fred Schwartz thought the 2008 Republican national Convention was going to be a disaster. Even then he saw that the collision between the far right and the establishment GOP were on a collision course that could lead to the end of them as a national party. While the odds of the GOP securing the White House in 2016 remain slim the doomsday predictions for the House and Senate haven’t come to pass.
The GOP have quietly become a major force in midterm elections precisely because of those far right conservative supporters of candidates that incorrectly call themselves republicans. The TEA Party, as an umbrella organ with those conservatives disillusioned with the Establishment GOP, will be the death of the Grand Old Party shortly after their defeat in the 2016 presidential election cycle. Mid term elections serve as cauldrons that pour forth the fears and hypocrisy for the conservative base and allow them to broaden their legislative branch power. Presidential elections focus the media spotlight on the ugly truth or the bigotry, misogyny and homophobia that are needed by the Establishment GOP to get their ultra conservative base of 40 million voters lathered into a frenzy.
Today John Boehner stands at the crossroads of the death of the GOP. There can be three outcomes as he seeks to remain House Speaker. There can be a Boehner victory on the first ballot. This is the likely outcome. There can be a defection from him of enough votes to force a second ballot or more which would still see Boehner win. Then, horrifically, Boehner could lose the vote many ballots down the line. This would be the de facto lighting of the fuse that would see the GOP fracture at its center. And who’s to say that Democrats in an act of bold partisan politics wouldn’t support a crackpot like Louis Gohmert on the first ballot just to make things interesting?
The Establishment GOP would then be forced to come to the center and jettison those from its ranks with TEA Party loyalty. The problem with this would be that several of the bright lights of the GOP for the 2016 nomination are in lockstep with the TEA Party. Gone would be Ted Cruz and likely Marco Rubio to a new third party. That would be the best case scenario for the GOP.
Schwartz mentioned in 2008 that the GOP convention could look like the 1968 Chicago Democratic Convention. were Rubio and Cruz still in the running and Jeb Bush ushered in the backdoor through smoky room dealings the rank and file on the convention floor could rebel, especially in Southern and Western states. The public meltdown would be a national embarrassment for the GOP and the implosion would resonate into an electoral landslide for not only the Democratic nominee in the national but far down the ticket. This event, over the next five election cycles in state elections, could be the unwinding of the control that Republicans have had at the state level for nearly a decade.
That is why I see this vote today as more than posturing for 2016. It may be the first shot of a civil war between the Establishment and the TEA Party that will be bloody and ugly and played out on your televisions over the next 23 months.
Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!
Sarah Bloch, D.S.V.J., J.F., O.Q.H [Jur.]
Amici Bax Demvolu Comnu
Politics & Culture Wars Managing Editor
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
91 Melnar 3 AS