THE GOP CONVENTION OF 2016: DEFIANCE IN THE FACE OF DISASTER
That quote comes from one of my favorite account of the war for our independence here in Hell, written by the leader of the partisans on Rham. It allows you, the Living to see for a moment into the minds of those people you see on television called politicians. It is very easy to look back at history and see where an American political party has gone wrong. Fred Schwartz points to 1968 and the Democratic Party’s awful convention in Chicago. That event was a perfect storm for failure. The Tet Offensive emboldened the anti-war movement, Daley’s obsession with crushing the protesters and the lack a a strong Democratic candidate with a vision poured gallons of fuel on the party’s pyre. And, of course, there was television to bring it all to the comfortable living rooms of the American people.
So that brings us to the 2016 GOP nomination process and the massive field of potential candidates. The primaries begin in less than twelve months with an event that isn’t a primary at all the Iowa Caucus. Eight days later New Hampshire has its primary and the process likely will end in late June with the Utah primary. The GOP has shortened their schedule for a wide variety of reasons. Foremost, they want to limit the amount of time their candidates are before the cameras. Less exposure less time for errors that Democrats can use against them. So much energy has been poured into this and taken away from the suggestions of the 2012 Election Autopsy that this becomes the first gust of the storm to come.
As recently as February 2014 a poll, this one from McClatchy, has Sarah Palin as high as 8% among GOP likely voters. No other poll has even offered her name since. Today there is a buzz that Palin is considering a run. This would be the first bolt of lightning, albeit offshore, of foul weather building. Palin entering the contest would be huge for TEA Party conservatives and would create nausea in the bellies of Establishment members of the GOP. Her presence would divide the party in ways that can only be measured on a Richter like scale. Reince Priebus’ grand plan to trim down the primary schedule and limit debates as the ultimate troubleshooting effort to “degaffe” the GOP candidates will have been torched by a single decision.
Bush and his name recognition and immigration problems would see his support being chipped away by not only Palin. but by moderates like Christie and unknowns like Ben Carson. So by the time the GOP comes to Cleveland, in a race that will likely still have a minimum of five candidates still in the field with broad support. Those candidates would be, Palin, Paul, Bush, Walker and Christie; with Paul and Palin each having as much as 30% of the delegates they’d need to be the nominee. I feel that Palin if she has a lead over Paul might offer the VP nod to Paul for his delegates and that would be that if the Kentucky Senator could see beyond the right now. Paul is only 52 now and four, or eight years in Blair House would make him the de facto front runner in 2024. If Paul wants the right now moment he would find help, in a brokered convention, from a most unlikely source to balk at such a deal–The GOP Establishment.
The so called moneybags and kingmakers within the GOP don’t want Rand Paul or Sarah Palin but they do want, in a brokered convention, time. Time to change minds by making deals in the cigar smoke filled rooms in Cleveland’s most posh hotels. These deals might bring a Scott Walker or a Chris Christie out of the ashes and onto the podium arms raised and declaring proudly that they accept the nomination amid boo and harsh criticism from the membership of the convention floor. Such an event might be enough to anger Palin into casting her lot as a third party candidate. The outcome of that event would be the final fracturing of the GOP. The hurricane would be ashore then with no place safe to run.
Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!
Sarah Bloch, D.S.V.J., J.F., O.Q.H [Jur.]
Amici Bax Demvolu Comnu
Politics & Culture Wars Managing Editor
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