WINNERS AND LOSERS: DONALD TRUMP THE CONFEDERATE BATTLE FLAG AND IMMIGRATION
Let’s get back on track here on the issues facing the United States of America in the long hot summer of 2015. That’s not really accurate because only one of the things I’m going to talk about this morning is a pertinent issue- immigration. The other two things Donald Trump and the flag of the Army of Northern Virginia are merely entertainments and distractions from wider issues–the privilege of the rich and racial bigotry. I’ll deal with both of those issues here as well.
Donald Trump only in my most feverish Progressive dreams of joy will be the presidential nominee for the GOP in 2016. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. He has said many times that the “liberal media” is out to get him or takes his words out of context. I’m not exactly the one who should judge the candidate or the media on that statement but I can join a chorus of those who feel that he has done the hardworking millions of undocumented immigrants in America a vicious disservice lumping them all into a group with the few who are criminals or seek to do Americans, no matter their color, religion or sexual orientation harm.
Now to his credit Trump hires Latinos in droves; people who will do the hard work that many white Americans wouldn’t do if their very lives depended on it. I am sure that there are millions of white Americans who are on welfare and have an EBT card who would walk past a help wanted sign at a Trump hotel to stay on the dole. You can feel free to quote me on that. But this latest incarnation of the “Southern Strategy” being employed by the Trump camp will do what it is intended to do and exactly what it did for Nixon in ’68 and ’72. This strategy will bring a few thousand Latinos of means into his camp but not enough to get Trump the GOP nod.
What it will do is mobilize hundreds of thousands of white voters to his side in the primaries making him a likely winner once the failures of Iowa and New Hampshire are forgotten. If Trump keeps beating his xenophobia drum, and shouting about the US Mexican border, he will win in South Carolina and Nevada and will be a favorite in five of the nine Super Tuesday primaries and caucus on 1 March 2016. This will strike a deep note of fear in the hearts of the GOP establishment and the party’s leader Reince Priebus. Trump will be the leader going into the important late March and early April primaries where the more moderate candidates like Bush and Christie should make considerable gains. It is far too early to start talking about brokered conventions but there has never been such a divisive candidate in the GOP, or any other party since the ’68 Democratic Convention in Chicago.
And that last statement brings me to the flag of Army of Northern Virginia being taken down from the state capitol in South Carolina. It will be a measure of sweet revenge for GOP voters in South Carolina to give Trump, a man who speaks to their perceived injury with the balm of animosity against the social changes taking place in America today, a primary victory. That flag that represents nothing more than white anger at the sweeping change of the last 60 years in America to the majority of those who revere it will be the standard that will wave in the hearts of those that vote for the billionaire hotelier. What Americans will see in the late winter and early spring of 2016 is the final political battle of the American Civil War. Trump will dominate the South and will do well enough to feel by the time his run is over in the summer of 2016 that he could be a viable third party candidate for the highest elected office in America.
Something to think about a year before things get really interesting in American politics.
Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
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