HOW LARGE IS THE CONSERVATIVE BASE? BOMBING AGRABAH
There has been quite a bit of work done in the past 12 years regarding the size of the conservative wing of the GOP. At the end of the Reagan administration the estimate was roughly 45% of the voting electorate were conservative today it might be as small as 27%. H L Mencken said something profound to me last night at Vulca, “You have to remember that folks born in 1925 elected Reagan and folks born in 1965 elected Clinton.” Most of the people who were born in 1925 for Reagan are dead now but their children, born in the 1940s or 1950s have a few elections to go. The conservative base is shrinking because it depended on the Greatest Generation/Baby Boomer coalition that fell in line with the Moral Majority. A colossal 54% of that coalition will not be voting in 2016 and an addition 9% will no longer be voting in 2020.
Like most ideologies conservatism still picks up members even from the current generation which is why the numbers haven’t drifted below 20%. A recent poll done by Public Policy Polling asked eligible voters if they would bomb the city of Agrabah. Among Republicans 30% said sure. The problem here is that Agrabah is a fictional city from the Disney animated film Aladdin. The good news in this tongue in cheek question is that 57% were not sure.
Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
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