THE SUNDAY BIG QUESTION: WHO WILL WIN THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2016
I wish I could keep you in suspense with 5,000 or more words this morning about demographics or contested conventions. But I can’t. After rooting around on Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site and poring over the comments sections of numerous Progressive and Conservative blogs I have come to a clear answer on today’s big question five months before the election. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States.
This will be due not to some October surprise but simply based on both a brutal and sickening campaign season of some very unpresidential nastiness and the demographic tide turning against conservatives and this new name for white political anger–Trumpism. Trump’s supports by the best metrics I have here make up a potential 39.5 million voters in the United States of America. Conversely, Hillary Clinton has a maximum demographic pool of slightly over 80 million voters, many of those concentrated in states that you have to win in 2016 to win the election. Florida and Ohio, generally battleground states in any election will this year not be. Texas for the first time since 1976 has a slim chance of turning blue. By 2024, Texas will be firmly blue from the state legislature up to the majority of congressional districts post the 2020 Census according to TED-OG. That shift, coupled with the continuing decline in the white voter base over the age of 55 in the South will mandate a shift in the GOP that was called for in the autopsy of the 2012 election by the RNC.
There has been a simple solution available to the GOP for a decade now; shift away from bigotry and social issues into an engine of inclusive job creation based on fixing the $2 trillion worth of infrastructure refitting that needs to be done over the coming two decades. That tack rather than trying to use fear and loathing among ageing white under-educated Americans would have brought in Latinos, blacks and women to the party. Sure Trump’s base loves to hear him calling out the “liberal press”, posturing on building a wall to keep out immigrants from Mexico and Central America, and appealing to white men by being macho in the face of threats like Megyn Kelly, but in the long run this sort of political path doesn’t gain him any new voters among groups where GOP candidates have failed over the last several elections.
The Democrats are not without their political sins in this age when they can claim the White House for the longest run in the last forty years. Minority poverty, gender pay equality, a lasting immigration policy that strengthens America, both economically and from a security standpoint, and the fact that America’s infrastructure is crumbling are all issues that Progressives over the next decade must address with a carrot and stick approach. These are the things that a Clinton Administration from 2017 until 2025 must focus on to assure that when we have this discussion again in eight years I will feel as equally confident that Cory Booker will win the White House. But for right now, as the pots simmer and the conventions loom close on the horizon I can confidently say that on a cold January morning next year we will be referring to the United States Commander-in-Chief as Madam president for the first time in American history.
Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
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