Author Archive

THERE’S SOMETHING SERIOUSLY WRONG WITH KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP

Posted in FINANCE, KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP, MARKET TECHNICAL GLITCH, STOCKS with tags on 01/08/2012 by carltonpryor

UPDATE:::: 11h 00m HST:::: Some of the stocks being affected above their daily volume in the first 90 minutes: Rite Aid [RAD], Exelon [EXC], GM [GM], Armour Residential REIT [ARR], Lithia Motors [LAD], Nokia [NOK], China Cord Blood [CO].
I generally start my mid morning with a second cup of tea and a check of the NYSE heatmap one half hour after the open of the market. Immediately I saw something was wrong as I set my heatmap to show volume. I was attracted to Knight Capital Group [KCG] and their nearly 10% drop in value on nearly three times the daily average volume. Bloomberg is reporting that KCG spokeswoman says they are looking into an algorithm based explanation for their precipitous drop in value. there are other odd signs such as a few dozen stocks trading abnormally higher in the NYSE as well. There is a whisper that KCG made a large number of buy orders vice bid orders that hit the market seconds after the open and the system may have “choked” on the algorithm.

One stock to watch that is volume trending like KCG is Molycorp [MCP] which is down 2.75% on volume nearly double the daily average in one hour’s trading. More to come on this as the market finds its footing.

Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
84 Shatter 2 AS

MARK NOONAN’S SURE FIRE CURE FOR US ECONOMIC WOES, “SHUT UP LIBERALS AND VOTE CONSERVATIVE!”

Posted in U.S. ECONOMY with tags , , , , on 06/07/2012 by carltonpryor

Mark Noonan, who has returned to Blogs4Victory recently, I am convinced after these many years of reading his posts, knows absolutely nothing of economics. It is my assumption that his wife must balance the books otherwise they would be deep in poverty giving away most of their money as his archaic religion demands. But all sarcasm aside, there’s very little one can reply to a person like Mr Noonan, who of course has no economic recovery plan of his own, who places these sorts of conditions on liberal commentary:

“If you haven’t got a rock-solid answer and a means of demonstrating how that rock-solid answer will turn this around, then a vote for Obama is a mere vote of hatred…a vote you will give him not because you really think him wise or strong but simply because you hate Republicans so much that you’d rather suffer Obama than have a Republican in office.”

I do have a rock solid answer and it is more economic stimulus to working people and the unemployed. My goal would be to heat up the pot to a rolling simmer by injecting $3 trillion in stimulus to every working person in the country. [This works out to just over $20,000 to each person in the US working or on unemployment over the age of 16 in the nation.] That money would pay down debt, be invested into small business to buy vehicles and equipment, and the remains would clear many of the shelves in American stores. That would place pressure on those sitting on the sidelines who have the power to hire and start new projects. This solution would create about a 4% rate of inflation but TED-OG estimates it would also create, by conservative estimates, 6.25 million jobs over the next four years.

Mark Noonan would not like this plan and many of the pseudoeconomists at B4V would not like it either because it is quite similar to what Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman has suggested. Clearly, the conservative path of shovelling money to the top 1% has failed, as President Obama pointed out this morning. The time to give away America’s economic future is at an end. The only means by which to fix the current problems and to create an America where young people will have a chance to retire at a level at least equal to their parents is to relect the President and bring in Liberal members to the House to give the Democrats a majority. Otherwise America with a GOP House and Mitt Romney in the White House will have 4 years of unemploymment averaging 10.5% along with the spectre of inflation toward the last quarter of 2015.

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
62 Shatter 2 AS

RESTARTING THE ENGINE OF CAPITALISM IS UP TO THE CAPITALISTS

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , on 31/12/2011 by carltonpryor

I read this post at Blogs4victory about what needs to be done to get America’s economy going again and I was taken aback by how general and dangerous it was. here’s the upshot:

 

My personal feeling is that three of the most critical things that have to happen are (1) a national energy plan that promotes both energy independence and abundant, economical energy; (2) revamping our tax structure to make it simpler, broader based, more equitable and, most important, predictable over a reasonably lengthy period of time; and (3) revamp government regulations from top to bottom. In a sentence, we need to get away from a system that penalizes success and rewards failure to one that does the exactly the opposite.

Taking this point by point I will begin with the suggestion that the United States of America cannot be energy self sufficient if that means relying on oil from the United States alone. The nation needs 21 million bbl per day to keep the nation running. America has become a net exporter of refined petroleum products and still the price of crude oil has not dropped below $90 per bbl in quite some time. For conservatives this might be a disconnect for economists it isn’t at all. America needs to put an honest effort inot weaning itself not only off fossil fuels but of plastics as well. create jobs in industries that use wood and metal and you would have a fine start. Move toward a greener economy and you will be out of this oily mess in ten years.

The taxation question is a dog whistle to be sure. I can solve this issue with the stroke of a pen. Make the top tax rate for individuals making more than 1 million per year at 45%. The next rate would be set at 35 percent for those making more than $750,000. Those making more than $350,000 the rate would be 30%. For earners making more than 150,000 a year the rate would be 25%. Those making more than $50,000 would be taxed at a 15% rate and finally those making less than $50,000 a year would be taxed at a 10% rate. Problem solved.

This year if you make $50,000 per year your tax rate is 25%, if you make $150,000 it is 28%. Both of these groups would get tax relief because they are the ones that need it. Even a guy making $749,999 a year would get a 5% tax savings. Only those in the highest income tax bracket would see and increase of 10%.

And on government regulation this I can get on board with. We need more regulation in hedge funds, in health care in the environment and in a myriad of other places so America will actually be a place where workers will want to live and grow families.

Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
27 Ravenshade 2 AS

WHY PRESIDENT OBAMA’S PLAN WILL WORK

Posted in PRESIDENT OBAMA, Uncategorized on 09/09/2011 by carltonpryor

There are many necessities that need to be satisfied to get the American economy back on track. Chief among them is the need to decrese unemployment. This action should be the purview of corporations and small businesses but since these entities now are more concerned with gleaning as much profit as possible from the current work force, while paying out as few benefits as possible, it is up to the government to push the task forward.

By injecting 100 MMM into infrastructure projects and by cutting the payroll deduction to 3.1%, demand may be increased to the point that by July 2012 unemployment will be decresed to 7.5% and growth in Q2 will rise to 2.5%. This demand in consumer goods should force coroporations to hire more people. Instead of a double dip recession, a double dip recovery could manifest itself by Q1 2013. Our projections at TED-OG show that US economic growth in 2012, if this plan is not scuttled by the GOP House, could be as high as 4%.

What is needed is less concern about “debt” and more focus on what really drives the United States economy– consumers consuming.

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
176 4 Levithan 2 AS

BLACK FRIDAY 2011, OR, A MISDSUMMER NIGHT’S CONSERVATIVE WET DREAM

Posted in Uncategorized on 05/08/2011 by carltonpryor

Historians will look at many aspects of the coming global economic crisis and ask what precipitated the rapid decline. Some will suggest that the debt ceiling crisis kicked the wedge out of the economy. Others would say that pending the unemployment numbers on 5 August 2011 the Asian and European markets created too much gravity with their fears and led to a spiral toward the Second Great Slump. No matter what the honest trigger economically the political animal needs must be fed.

In that light conservatives and their economist hangers on will demand that the date all of this went wrong was no 15 September 2008 but 4 November 2008. The election of Barack Obama will now be tied to the events of the global economy, if it declines deeply over the next 12 months and beyond, by every conservative pundit on Terra. The Left has nowehre to go in this. this is a dream held by virtually every blogger on the Right in America. They want Barack Obama to be in regard to a failing economy everything that James Earl Carter Jr was.

This is a dream that conserrvatives have long sought to live out in all its anti-Keynesian multiorgasmic glory. An American president that is liberal, the first black President taken down by the one thing he has to keep moving forward that has been the Achilles’ heel of the worst presidents in American history–the constant flow of jobs to create more materialistic comfort for the citizenry. The turth of course is that the bulk of the economy is fine and there curently is growth. However, 1% or 2% isn’t enough for your world’s largest and most powerful consumer economy.

“I would have all of you consider this, the US unemployment number if it goes higher by more tha 0.2% will trigger a panic response not in markets they are already convulsing as we see in Japan tonight, but in consumer confidence. Americans do not realize that the fasting growing sector of their economy right now is small business. That is the greenest of green shoots. Unfortunately, that is growing ina very dark room gloomed by the media now convinced that the world is headed for a second recession–at least!”– Carlton Pryor, last night on the HBS programme, NewsTalk with Maarit Outi Pekkonen.

Materialists and their conservative allies demand 5%, 6% or even 7% growth on top of similar growth the year before. These are staggering amounts of largesse being heaped upon staggering amounts of greed. This fantasy is no longer sustainable and the Right when they come to power when a fearful electorate drums Mr Obama out of office in 2012 will come quickly to realize this. I hope that the damage they can do in two years does not create an America that is slipping toward third world status with questionable drinking water and regular shortages of electricity. It is in the hands of corporations now despite the fact how grand Barack Obama has been to them the great white whale of monied bigotry still does not like the sight of the man. If those who control the levers of economy, the corporate groups who actually run the economy care to listen to an economist who has had to bring an economy from the brink with corporate help I offer this morsel of advice, “Men who put their Faith in iron bars are soon doomed to have their Faith tested.”

Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
147 4 Levithan 2 AS

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE DEBT CEILING

Posted in Uncategorized on 20/07/2011 by carltonpryor

The debate over the debt ceiling in the government of the United States of America is a laughingstock here in Dis, Hell’s capital. That comedic sense of partisan politics gone horribly wrong rings especially sour here in the offices of TED-OG where I work as a lead economist. The last administration in power in Washington raised the debt ceiling no fewer than seven times from 2001 to 2009. At the inception of 2001 the US debt limit was 5.64MMMM USD. That limit was raised in every year since and now sits at 13.562MMMM USD.

What then, are the differences since 2001? Well, politically, of course the unbridled panic to retaliate against Al Qaeda for the 11 September attacks literally gave Bush carte blanche regarding debt. In every year following the Right has used “the troops” and their need to defend the United States against a deeper and more devastating terror attack as sanction to continually raise the debt limit. Economically, in a country growing increasingly older and requiring more in entitlements, nothing at all has changed.

Bush in his time was right to do what he felt necessary in regard to debt to secure the “homeland.” President Obama and the liberals in Congress are too correct in theirs to make the latter years of the elderly fiscally bearable in doing the same. The TEA Party has cast a terrible lot here because they understand nothing more than catering to the xenophobic and bigoted fears of the middle class, white and dangerously religious far Right.

The truth about the debt ceiling is that it must be raised. A default on debt and a diminishing of the credit rating of the United States would be the first rattle in the death throes of a truly great nation. It is my hope that the USA can be great again and put politics aside to lay that first new brick.

Carlton Pryor, D.S.V.E., O.Q.H.[Econ.].
Lead Economist
TED-OG
131 4 Levithan 2 AS

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