When we began this experiment in journalism in 2005, right before the landfall of hurricane Katrina, to have said to a supporter of the GOP in a blog space that America is not a conservative nation would have drawn laughter and ridicule. In the years that followed, with the disastrous war in Iraq, the blundering nomination of Harriet Myers, the outing of Valerie Plame and the election of Barack Obama, twice, those within the GOP who called themselves conservatives have recognized the awful truth–finally. Writing at Blogs for Victory, Mark Noonan admits what we here at The Dis Brimstone Daily Pitchfork had been telling him since late in 2006:
The Trumpocalypse is upon us and while there still is a slim chance that Cruz can derail it, what Trump has revealed is that the Republican Party is not, itself, a Conservative party…some of us (definitely myself, included) figured America to be a center-right nation and thus open to Conservatism on the whole. Turns out, we were quite wrong.
Quite wrong, indeed. When our writers told them the demographics of conservatism could not lead to the White House we were insulted and moderated out of comments. When we brought up issues like transgender rights and abortion rights in 2008 we were censored off their pages. A short eight years later, gay marriage is the law in all fifty states and the fight for the rights of transgender citizens is moving into the public consciousness. The efforts to defund Planned parenthood have failed and the laws to make it nearly impossible for an abortion provider to work in many states due to the requirement they have hospital privileges is being struck down in court after court. Social conservatives have lost the Culture Wars battles that they pinned their national political power hopes upon. Now many of them are in the same state of political depression that Mark Noonan finds himself in this morning.
What remains in the GOP now are two powerful factions. The first and most vocal but smaller of the two are the Screaming-Idiot Bigot Patriots. These are the people who will vote for Trump no matter what he does or says. They will vote against their self interests because a man is standing up at a podium massaging their bigotry glands and saying the things they wish they could say in public or at work. The others are the wealthier, more educated establishment Republicans who long for a candidate like Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan [Of course, neither of these men could have beaten Trump in the primaries in 2016.–F.S.]. Newsflash they are both dead and you had one in the form of a calm focused Jeb Bush. These establishmentarians do vote for their interests in the form of lower taxes and smaller government and will be the deciders at the convention when Trump is on the cusp of the nomination they take the prize from him. On that day in June of this year the GOP as a national party will die.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump works the crowd at the conclusion of his second campaign visit to Georgia at the Macon Centreplex Coliseum while a member of the crowd holds up the former flag of the state on Monday, Nov. 30, 2015, in Macon, Ga. (Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP)
The theocrats and social conservatives will go with Texas Governor Greg Abbott in 2020 which will be a debacle. The moderates will rally around Marco Rubio in 2018 when he runs for Governor of Florida and Indiana Governor Mike Pence in 2020. The establishment will look again to Jeb Bush in 2020 especially if a first Hillary Clinton term has not seen the economy return to a level of lower middle class robustness. If the economy has grown stronger in the United States by the summer of 2020 it will pointless for Conservative Christian Party, The American Freedom Party or the GOP to field a candidate considering those three political parties will be vying for a 40% slice of the total electorate. Worse,for conservatives, their candidates in House and Senate elections will have given the Democrats a majority in Congress after the 2020 re-election of Hillary Clinton.
The hundreds of “conservatives” that argued politics with us over the past decade now are literally wondering what happened. The last best chance they had was to move more to the center and jettison social issues to have a glimmer of hope of winning the White House in 2016. Now Trump has hijacked any chance of that doubling down on white nationalist patriotic nativism which had divided an aging and shrinking GOP base.
“Beware the ides of March” is a famous line from Julius Caesar and that quote was literally what the post election autopsy in 2012 was saying to anyone who in 2005 was proud to be a conservative member of the GOP. When historians look back to what actually shattered the GOP into three parties in the middle of the second decade of the 21st Century they will point to 15 March 2016 and the massive victory Trump won in Florida erasing Marco Rubio from the election field in his own home state.
The anger and maliciousness among Trump supporters is exactly the cancer the GOP needed removed from its heart and lungs. Now it is too late and the patient only has three months to live. In June, when the GOP has its last convention in its current incarnation they will take the nomination away from Donald Trump and the death spiral of the GOP will come to a crashing end. Like the Tea Party candidates who ran in 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections new Trumpian candidates will appear supported by the massive groundswell of a minority of Republicans and lower class whites who used to be Democrats until 2007. It is this new party that exhumes the corpse of the GOP and tries to breath life back into the Know Nothing Party to little success other than assuring the election of more Democrats in the House for at least the next twenty years.
Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!
Sarah Bloch, D.S.V.J., J.F., O.Q.H [Jur.]
Amici Bax Demvolu Comnu
Politics & Culture Wars Managing Editor
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
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