This should be a really simple concept, “Do unto other as you would have them do unto you.” That means if there was a catastrophe in the United States one would hope other nations would come to your aid.
But there seems to be a trend in modern America of hate, disillusion and bigotry that runs so deep that even those suffering the type of horrors as the refugees from Syria, many of whom are Christians, are seen as threats to the consumption of beer, driving and daily search for first time sex partners that has made America great. Conservatives aren’t going to like this post very much. I’ve spent the last few days, well actually the last nine days, here in the office working on the facts of the Paris attacks by Da’esh. That’s right Da’esh, not ISIS, we won’t be calling them that anymore; and I’ve come to a few conclusions.
The first conclusion is that Da’esh can’t win this war and establish a caliphate from India to England. It ain’t gonna happen. They have no planes, no tanks and no navy so fuck them. What they can do is disrupt all the nice stuff the West has and that’s a problem. SO what needs to be done is to eliminate Da’esh and all those who support them. As of right now my source in the French intelligence community says Da’esh has maybe 850,000 followers globally with 25% of those committed to doing violence. That number includes the estimated 180,000 fighting currently in Syria.
You don’t need too many people to form a cell to do the heinous acts of violence like we all saw in Paris on 13 November. One hundred seven person cells would cause widespread panic in Europe and the United States, but it hasn’t happened yet and I wish I could say I doubt it ever will. And this leads me to the second conclusion.
The United States will get hit again and this time by Da’esh. Pain has been working on more scenarios than any terrestrial computer could calculate and process and likely it will be in a major US city on the East Coast or the South and it will have between 750 and 1,000 casualties. This will look like the Charlie Hebdo attacks or the 13 November attacks in Paris or a drawn out Mumbai style attack. Not a single one of the attackers is likely to be a Syrian refugee, but you couldn’t tell Donald Trump that. They will be radicalized Americans just as the murderers in France were radicalized French.
Good intelligence work will stop an attack and many have been thwarted over the past 12 months. What isn’t helping is the political rhetoric from conservatives about Syrian refugees and Muslims in general. Muslims are not bad people but there are some bad Muslims. Not all conservatives are bigots but some bigots are conservatives. You see my point.
Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
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53 2 Leviathan 3 AS