Archive for GOP

ELECTION 2016: TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION PLAN IS SIMPLY A EFFORT TO ELICIT A PAEAN FROM THE CONSERVATIVE BASE; BUT HE STILL WILL BE THE NOMINEE FROM THE GOP IF HE WANTS TO BE

Posted in 2016 ELECTIONS, THE DESTRUCTION OF THE GOP with tags , on 17/08/2015 by Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H. [Journ.]

fredschwartz1

I know the title of this post might strike the average reader as a bit pedantic but bear with me. Donald Trump is the front runner for the GOP nomination for President today. Today is 17 August 2015. This may come as a surprise to many political personages who read my blog posts but the only person that can defeat Donald Trump for the GOP nomination is Donald Trump. There is no stupid thing that the man can say that will sway the GOP base– the arch conservatives I’ll call them from their position of loyalty to him.

The reality of the state of the Right today is that they have codified their xenophobia into their DNA. Conservatives have become the Dixiecrats of the 21st Century and are doubling down on being able to seize ultimate power [state houses, governorships, the House, Senate and the White House] before their base becomes too old or dies. Barring something criminal, or his own decision to withdraw from the race, Donald Trump will win enough delegates to become the GOP nominee in 2016. There isn’t a single individual among the other 16 candidates that keep pace with him.

I was inspired to write this article because of Trump’s lack of savvy in regard to using military force. I am guilty of blaming Bush for the farce of the Iraq War when it was actually the hawkish neocon advisers that surrounded the man. Trump is much more of a fool that George W Bush ever will be. This man is dangerous and not ideologically but seriously dangerous. I don’t give a fuck how much money he’s made; running a governmental mechanisms of a nation the size of the United States is a job better left to politicians. Trump will destroy everything he touches much as a blind man would plow every thing in his path driving on a highway no matter how confident he is.

hindsight 2357
In Hindsight
So in November 2016, Donald Trump will either be running against Hillary Clinton or if her server blunder makes her unelectable some other Democrat [likely Joe Biden if things get too bad for HRC]. The entire process of debates and campaign stops will finally reduce the political process in America to the level of well produced reality TV. It will be the death of American politics and the end of a process that has survived despite its flaws since 1792. Trump wants to be President and I firmly believe that; the only way the GOP can save itself from self destructing at the convention and being forced to have Trump as their front man is to kill his political aspirations with a combination some manner of Nixonian shenanigans and searching high and low for a true Lincolnite who will boot out the bigots and the religious crazies making the party more diverse and inclusive. if the far right those married to guns, religion and race want to start their own party they can become 21st Century Know Nothings taking a House seat here or there but never amounting to more than a fart in a hurricane. If things stay as they are now Trump will get his wish–political fame at the expense of the American people, the GOP and democracy.

Pax Terra!

Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
Managing Editor—Research
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
105 Hov’ish 3 AS

THE GOP CONVENTION OF 2016: DEFIANCE IN THE FACE OF DISASTER

Posted in 2012 ELECTION GOP AUTOPSY, 2016 ELECTIONS, 2016 US ELECTION, SARAH BLOCH OPINIONS with tags , on 03/02/2015 by sarahbloch

blochadvocate_7“No man needs anything more than his own knowledge that his way is best to destroy him.”– Paaclu Obeleth, Liberty and Peace

That quote comes from one of my favorite account of the war for our independence here in Hell, written by the leader of the partisans on Rham. It allows you, the Living to see for a moment into the minds of those people you see on television called politicians. It is very easy to look back at history and see where an American political party has gone wrong. Fred Schwartz points to 1968 and the Democratic Party’s awful convention in Chicago. That event was a perfect storm for failure. The Tet Offensive emboldened the anti-war movement, Daley’s obsession with crushing the protesters and the lack a a strong Democratic candidate with a vision poured gallons of fuel on the party’s pyre. And, of course, there was television to bring it all to the comfortable living rooms of the American people.

So that brings us to the 2016 GOP nomination process and the massive field of potential candidates. The primaries begin in less than twelve months with an event that isn’t a primary at all the Iowa Caucus. Eight days later New Hampshire has its primary and the process likely will end in late June with the Utah primary. The GOP has shortened their schedule for a wide variety of reasons. Foremost, they want to limit the amount of time their candidates are before the cameras. Less exposure less time for errors that Democrats can use against them. So much energy has been poured into this and taken away from the suggestions of the 2012 Election Autopsy that this becomes the first gust of the storm to come.

As recently as February 2014 a poll, this one from McClatchy, has Sarah Palin as high as 8% among GOP likely voters. No other poll has even offered her name since. Today there is a buzz that Palin is considering a run. This would be the first bolt of lightning, albeit offshore, of foul weather building. Palin entering the contest would be huge for TEA Party conservatives and would create nausea in the bellies of Establishment members of the GOP. Her presence would divide the party in ways that can only be measured on a Richter like scale. Reince Priebus’ grand plan to trim down the primary schedule and limit debates as the ultimate troubleshooting effort to “degaffe” the GOP candidates will have been torched by a single decision.

Bush and his name recognition and immigration problems would see his support being chipped away by not only Palin. but by moderates like Christie and unknowns like Ben Carson. So by the time the GOP comes to Cleveland, in a race that will likely still have a minimum of five candidates still in the field with broad support. Those candidates would be, Palin, Paul, Bush, Walker and Christie; with Paul and Palin each having as much as 30% of the delegates they’d need to be the nominee. I feel that Palin if she has a lead over Paul might offer the VP nod to Paul for his delegates and that would be that if the Kentucky Senator could see beyond the right now. Paul is only 52 now and four, or eight years in Blair House would make him the de facto front runner in 2024. If Paul wants the right now moment he would find help, in a brokered convention, from a most unlikely source to balk at such a deal–The GOP Establishment.

The so called moneybags and kingmakers within the GOP don’t want Rand Paul or Sarah Palin but they do want, in a brokered convention, time. Time to change minds by making deals in the cigar smoke filled rooms in Cleveland’s most posh hotels. These deals might bring a Scott Walker or a Chris Christie out of the ashes and onto the podium arms raised and declaring proudly that they accept the nomination amid boo and harsh criticism from the membership of the convention floor. Such an event might be enough to anger Palin into casting her lot as a third party candidate. The outcome of that event would be the final fracturing of the GOP. The hurricane would be ashore then with no place safe to run.

Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!

Sarah Bloch, D.S.V.J., J.F., O.Q.H [Jur.]
Amici Bax Demvolu Comnu
Politics & Culture Wars Managing Editor
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
118 Melnar 3 AS

FLORIDA GOP CONGRESSMAN CURT CLAWSON CAN’T GRASP THAT PEOPLE WITH SKIN DARKER THAN HIM ARE AMERICANS

Posted in CONSERVATIVE ANTI-INTELLECTUALISM, CONSERVATIVE BIGOTRY, CONSERVATIVE IGNORANCE, CONSERVATIVE RESISTANCE TO FACT CHECKING, POLITICAL GAFFE, TEA PARTY with tags , , , on 26/07/2014 by Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H. [Journ.]

fredschwartz1

Initially I wasn’t going to add any text to Rep Curt Clawson’s comments in his first day on a House Committee, but the importance of his initial comments about how much he’s invested in India are important. So this guy is wealthy enough to invest tens of millions in India but he isn’t smart, or possibly sober, enough to realize that the two individuals he’s speaking to are not, in fact, representatives of the Indian government but representatives of his own government. Watch the video here.

This from the TEA Party Express website should send shivers through the establishment GOP:

Tea Party Express is proudly endorsing businessman Curt Clawson for the upcoming special election for the 19th congressional district in Florida. We are endorsing Curt for his many skills which we believe are exactly what the country needs to get back on track. The fact he is not a career politician is one of the reasons we believe he can bring clarity and solutions to troubled times. We appreciate the fact Mr. Clawson can utilize those proven skills, applying them to the “business” of Government.

swedish twins 1
In Hindsight

If this is the best the TEA Party can do and these guys still get elected over the establishment candidate because they parrot the far right code better the GOP is doomed. Nisha Desai Biswal and Arun M Kumar are both United States government officials. Biswal was appointed by President Obama to the US State Department post of Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs in 2013. Kumar works for the US Commerce Department in the International Trade Administration as Director General of the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service and Assistant Secretary for Global Markets. Both of these exemplary civil servants are American citizens. Maybe if the two girls above were before the committee Clawson would have thanked the Swedish government for being such a steadfast ally on trade? Maybe not.

Pax Terra!

Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
Managing Editor—Research
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
31 Ashtaq 3 AS

THE GOP POST ELECTION 2012 AUTOPSY: REPORT CARD JULY 2014

Posted in 2012 ELECTION GOP AUTOPSY with tags , on 16/07/2014 by Diane Valencen, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H [Journ.], ArF J., M.F.

diane_tomlinson_2

To say the defeat of Mitt Romney in November of 2012 by President Barack Obama was a sobering moment for the GOP would be a gross understatement. Romney’s handlers had virtually assured him of wins in not only Florida but Pennsylvania and Ohio according to their polling. While there was no single factor that kept Romney from winning the election, or kept the GOP from taking back the Senate, the combination of a poor message to women, Latinos and African-American voters became a force equal to the anti-Bush backlash that saw Obama defeat John McCain in 2008.

With this in mind, minutes after the defeat, the Republican National Committee began to assess the damage. The following month the autopsy of the failure was presented and made public. While I don’t agree with all the recommendations as de facto solutions to the problems within the GOP, each is a positive step toward moderation that would allow the GOP, which is strong in state government, to not lose ground as a national party.

There were decision to tweak their message. An outreach program to Asian, Latino and African-America voters was proposed. The RNC even wanted to create more diversity within the hierarchy of the GOP.

What’s missing from the autopsy is how the RNC, as a party organ, was going to deal with the TEA Party as a direct threat to the GOP’s existence. Additionally, none of the GOP leadership, in or out of elected office, was willing to break ranks with those who felt the only way to secure their control of the House and win back the Senate in the 2014 midterm elections was to remain staunchly anti-Obama on every issue despite the fact that Obama never has to run for office again. Those in Congress were more interested in finding a way to neuter the sitting President rather than building their power by working with him.

The problem here is both demographic and geographic. Districts in urban centers, where there are large masses of voters tend to be more diverse; districts in rural areas tend to be more homogeneous. This makes for concentrations of Democratic power in most of the big cities and concentrations of GOP power in rural counties in most states.

Primaries have become battlegrounds for GOP incumbents as the challenges to prove conservative bona fides become more and more pronounced. The inability of the GOP to deal with the TEA Party in the recent run of primaries where we witnessed the ouster of Eric Cantor in Virginia is a sign of the weakness of both the GOP autopsy and the fear that the GOP base is less GOP and more TEA Party aligned. If this “purification” of the party where only the most conservative candidate can be elected continues over the next three election cycles, 2014, 2016 and 2018, their will be a rift that sees many of the most conservative voters departing the GOP, which must moderate to survive, for a more palatable, whiter, more socially concerned, more anti-cooperation with anything proposed by Democrats, third party.

It is for this reason that I give the original GOP 2012 autopsy a B- for its scope and the party itself an F for its work on implementing it. Congressman Issa’s neverending Benghazi hearings, Speaker Boehner’s folly of suing the President, the government shutdown and Sarah Palin’s calls for the Impeachment of President Obama all serve as testaments to the siege nature of the war the GOP is fighting internally. The work being done by GOP moderates like Ramesh Ponnuru is being drowned out by the inept inheritors of modern conservatism, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Palin and Hannity in popular culture and Akin, Perry and Cruz among those in and near the power center of elected office. This is a deadly mix of confusing and conflicting messages that for the most part are shouting races to say the most conservative thing first.

At the end of election night 2014 the GOP will likely be right where it will be right now with control of the House and Democratic control, albeit smaller, in the Senate. What looms on the horizon is an election process that will begin in the late winter of 2015 as potential presidential candidates on both side announce their intentions. One doesn’t have to be an oracle to see the electoral disaster of pitting “the most conservative candidate” against an Elizabeth Warren or a Hillary Clinton. There would need to be no autopsy by the RNC after that disaster because the GOP would get no wins outside the South minus Florida. This leaves the GOP with only one option–to moderate, diversify and jettison the social issues to survive.

Qu’ul cuda praedex nihil!

Diane Valencen, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.], ArF J., M.F.
Editorial Page Editor
The Dis Brimstone Daily Pitchfork
22 Ashtaq 3 AS

THE GOP MUST FIND A WAY TO SHUT UP SARAH PALIN ET AL BEFORE JANUARY 2016 OR THE PARTY WILL CEASE TO EXIST

Posted in FRED SCHWARTZ OPINIONS, GOP, GOP AS A MINORITY PARTY, IN HINDSIGHT with tags , , , on 14/07/2014 by Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H. [Journ.]

fred_schwartz_4

I’m unfortunately not for hire to the GOP to do their dirty work, but if the folks who work for Reince Priebus at the RNC have any sense they will spend some of their millions on finding the nugget of embarrassment on Sarah Palin or anyone else who wants to take 35% of the GOP with it to the Christian Freedom Party or the TEA Party or whatever homespun, folksy moniker they decide to call the plague they will inject into the major political representative party on the Right. Political parties don’t fall from favor in an instant. It is a slow process and can be precipitated in any number of ways.

What is happening to the GOP is a curious combination of demographic shrinkage and negative messaging. This is detailed by Ana Marie Cox in her most recent article for the UK Guardian. The poll taken by Rupe-Reason of 2,000 millennials shows a significant shift toward Progressive political tendencies that in a potential voting bloc of 80 million could sink the conservatives albeit slowly. I’ve written before about Texas turning blue by 2024 and this is because of the singular thing that millennials can agree on–they hate drama.

The eyeopener from the report:

The Reason-Rupe report finds this skepticism of government has millennials favoring general reductions to government spending and regulations:

73 percent of millennials favor allowing private accounts for Social Security; 51 percent favor private accounts even it means cutting Social Security benefits for current and future retirees because 53 percent of millennials say Social Security is unlikely to exist when they retire
64 percent of millennials say cutting government spending by 5 percent would help the economy
59 percent say cutting taxes would help the economy
57 percent prefer a smaller government providing fewer services with low taxes, while 41 percent prefer a larger government providing more services with high taxes
57 percent want a society where wealth is distributed according to achievement
55 percent say reducing regulations would help the economy
53 percent say reducing the size of government would help the economy
74 percent of millennials say government has a responsibility to guarantee every citizen has a place to sleep and enough to eat
However, millennials also support more government action and higher spending in a number of key areas:

71 percent favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour
69 percent say it is government’s responsibility to guarantee everyone access to health care and 51 percent have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act
68 percent say government should ensure everyone makes a living wage
66 percent say raising taxes on the wealthy would help the economy
63 percent say spending more on job training would help the economy
58 percent say the government should spend more on assistance to the poor even it means higher taxes
57 percent favor spending more money on infrastructure
54 percent favor a larger government that provides more services, when taxes are not mentioned
54 percent want government to guarantee everyone a college education

And the message that should be clear to the GOP in the shadow of the 2014 midterm elections and two years before the 2016 presidential:

Of those registered to vote, 76 percent of millennials say they plan to vote in the 2014 midterm elections. Fifty-three percent of registered millennials tell Reason-Rupe they plan to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district this November, while 29 percent intend to vote for the Republican. For Democrats that’s a sharp decline from the 64 percent of millennials who say they voted for President Barack Obama in 2012.

Things look better for Democrats in 2016, however. When asked to select their top choice for president in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was the top choice of 39 percent of registered millennial voters, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8 percent), Vice President Joe Biden (6 percent) and the top Republican, Rep. Paul Ryan (6 percent). Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Rand Paul were each the top choice of 5 percent of registered millennial voters.

A majority of millennials, 52 percent, identify themselves as independents when first asked. Just 16 percent self-identify as Republicans, while 32 percent say they’re Democrats. Including those leaning towards a party, 43 percent of millennials identify as Democrats, 35 percent as independents, and only 23 percent classify themselves as Republicans.

Millennials don’t identify with the political parties and don’t have much confidence in them. When asked who they trust most to handle a series of policy issues, young Americans say they trust “neither” party to handle 12 of 15 issues surveyed. Millennials do trust Democrats the most on gay marriage, the environment, and poverty, while only trusting Republicans the most on promoting entrepreneurship.

That last paragraph should make the leadership of the Establishment GOP run screaming from their country clubs and to the nearest television studio to denounce Palin and Akin every chance they get.

hindsight 2271

In Hindsight
The GOP would be well served to do all it can to counter the attacks coming from their right flank and try to come to the center. There’s very little they can do to fight the demographic shift as the base of the GOP is dying by the day. As Cox points out in her article the best thing for the GOP to do is try to find a way to mute the faux outrage pouring forth from the mouths of people like Sarah Palin and pray, yes pray, they can find a moderate centrist candidate before the eulogy for the Grand Old Party is written.

Pax Terra!

Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
Managing Editor—Research
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
20 Ashtaq 3 AS

THE ANTI-CLINTON RHETORIC OF ROBERT MORROW WILL ASSURE A HILLARY CLINTON VICTORY IN 2016

Posted in 2016 ELECTIONS with tags , , , on 08/07/2014 by Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H. [Journ.]

fred_schwartz_4

Robert Morrow is a name that has likely been forgotten by the bulk of American politics watchers in the 21st Century. Morrow is a blogger from Austin, Texas who may be the most anti-Clinton on the Right and that takes quite a bit of doing in the modern era which finds the GOP and its bastard child the TEA Party in full rictus at the thought of having to field a candidate to oppose her in 2016. This bloggers posts run the gamut from incendiary fantasies about the sex lives of the Clintons to debates about the feud between the Clintons and the Obamas.

This is certainly good reading for the 15 million or so die hard far Right conservatives in the United States but articles about Chelsea Clinton’s parentage with no fact to back up his assertions will do nothing to grow the GOP base beyond 37.5 million voters. This sort of political writing when read by moderates will do little more than drive them to any other alternative. While attacking a political adversary is by its nature a part of the political game, wild and fabulous articles about your opponent only make you look desperate.

hindsight 2238
In Hindsight

The Robert Morrow’s of the blogosphere will be the Todd Akins of the 2016 Presidential Campaign. No matter who the GOP candidate is I hope the Progressives reign in their own bloggers and have them stick to hard opposition research based in fact rather than conjecture or outright falsehoods. As sad as this might be for me to say the 2016 race will not be about issues it will be about perceptions. If Hillary Clinton is challenged by a GOP candidate who is unacceptably moderate for the deeply conservative, the TEA Party may move to place a candidate on all the state ballots. At this point the GOP will seek to win on the issues and they will jettison the Anti-Obama and anti-Clinton rhetoric and focus on social and fiscal issues in a hope they can appeal to their base. The TEA Party will double down on the negatives and if they have a Palin/West ticket they may get between 15 and 20 million votes. This would leave the GOP moderate with roughly 35 to 40 million votes while Clinton would get about 70 million and win in a de facto landslide. The GOP with the headwind of aggressive negatives coming from one side and expertise on issues coming from another will not be able to run a 50 state campaign. At best the GOP in a three way race would have to focus on saving Texas for the last time, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania while Clinton can take comfort in a groundswell of votes from young women in all 50 states and turn some traditionally red states blue.

Pax Terra!

Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
Managing Editor—Research
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
14 Ashtaq 3 AS

THE SUICIDE FROM FEAR OF DEATH REPORT: TEA PARTY DESPERATE TO KILL OF ANY CHANCE OF WINNING THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2016

Posted in 2016 ELECTIONS, FRED SCHWARTZ OPINIONS, GOP, GOP AS A MINORITY PARTY, GOP MELTDOWN, HILLARY CLINTON, HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON 2016, JEB BUSH, TEA PARTY, TEA PARTY VIOLENCE, TECTONIC SHIFTS with tags , , , , , on 22/04/2014 by Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., O.Q.H. [Journ.]

fred_schwartz_4

Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida is likely the only candidate that could win in 2016 for the GOP no matter who is running against him. Bush has embraced a need for amnesty for undocumented immigrants as well as the Common Core educational model. Both of these issues are hot button topics for the conservative base which has migrated toward a rigid more orthodox form of political ideology since the election of 2008.

Breitbart.com’s Tony Lee today writes a piece about Bush and his ties to a company, Tenet HealthCare. Tenet was an early and vocal supporter of ObamaCare and Lee quotes a New York Times article written by Michael Barbaro, which paints a picture of the difficulty that Bush would have with the base if he were to run for the nomination:

“And in a stint that could complicate his appeal to conservatives, Mr. Bush serves as a paid director to Tenet Health Care, the giant hospital owner, which supported President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, aggressively encouraged Americans to sign up for insurance under the program and trumpeted the legislation as a boon to the company’s finances.”

It is doctrine among the conservative base that anything Obama promotes must be fought against tooth and nail. Any Obama policy accepted by a member of the Establishment GOP must be viewed as treason to the conservative cause. This level of de facto ideological purity is what caused hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to turn their backs on both John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. This will set up a very vocal and heated showdown during the primaries in 2016 with moderates among the establishment doing all they can to convince donors that their guy can win despite alienating the base. Equally, the TEA Party and its Koch powered advertising machine will do all it can to carpet bomb the establishment opposition painting them as “RINOs”.

hindsight 2256
In Hindsight

The fallout of this is, in my opinion a perfect storm for the final showdown between the TEA Party and the Establishment GOP. The 2016 GOP Convention might finally prove my prediction in 2008 and 2012 true; that the party will self destruct on live television. I’d like to go on record and implore the major networks to cover every minute of both nominating conventions which should be historical to say the least. The Democrats will elevate Hillary Clinton as their candidate making her the first female at the top of a major party ticket. The GOP will find itself struggling to keep its house in order. History has an odd way of repeating itself; from the ashes of the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago came the victory for Nixon that he so craved and a long time in the wilderness for the Democratic Party as it relates to the Executive Branch. Out of the 2016 GOP Convention their could be the final nail driven in the coffin of a party that can claim Reagan and Lincoln both of whom would not recognize what their Grand Old Party has become in the 21st Century.

Pax Terra!

Fredrick Schwartz, D.S.V.J., CS, O.Q.H [Journ.]
Managing Editor—Research
The Dis Brimstone-Daily Pitchfork
183 1 Leviathan 3 AS

%d bloggers like this: